Gore's endorsement

In light of the fact that, without even being in the race, Al Gore tends to poll above 10 percent, I wonder whom (if anybody) people think he'll endorse and what sort of boost that will give them. Right now, Richardson has the most Gore-like climate bill, but Edwards has less ground to gain if he wants to be a contender. Thoughts from the lot of you?

Comments

[Zach Gorin]

I'm inclined to think that, if Gore were going to go out on a limb and endorse somebody other than Obama or Clinton, he wouldn't stray too far from the conventional wisdom. Assume that he endorses somebody with a strong environmental plan, a Richardson or a Dodd, and for all intents and purposes let's also assume that in that case, we can generously assume that the Richardson or Dodd picks up all of Gore's support. This substantial political gamble (picking an eventual loser hurts, like it did when Gore picked Dean in 2004) would then only create a 4-way top tier in the case of Richardson, or simply solidify Dodd as a second-tier guy, which doesn't give him enough traction.

Thus, if Gore really won't pick Obama or Clinton, it means that Edwards is the one. But I don't feel that Gore has left any clues that Edwards is his guy, though I do recall rumors of Edwards' name being floated as a possible Gore VP selection in 2000.

Gore's efforts to distance himself from Bill Clinton during the 2000 campaign, though questioned heavily in recent years by those looking for reasons why Gore lost what should have been a winning campaign, impact relations between Hillary and Gore. Furthermore, much of the Clinton-era literature (Woodward's The Agenda, for example) illustrate the uneasy political competitiveness between Clinton's wife and his VP. And don't forget that, in spite of recent maneuverings, Hillary was for years a strong supporter of the war while Gore voiced his opposition early.

Based on Iraq, then, it makes sense to endorse Obama, who, like Gore, voiced early opposition to the invasion. But again, Obama's recent back-and-forth on liquified coal probably makes Gore leery of Obama's priorities.

Thus, what we have is flawed options all around. Further, if Gore wants to be an influence on the next administration, the savviest political play would be not to endorse anybody, thus ensuring that the next (Democratic) president has no animosity towards the man who hopes to lead a worldwide movement to combat climate change.

[JimPortlandOR]

Endorsements, of any kind, rarely have the intended effect. I can' think of a person elected to national office who owed his election to someone who endorsed her/him.

Active campaigning, on the other hand, can help (or hurt).

In the case of Gore pre-primary support for a candidate: what Zach says makes some sense to me. It won't influence the primary vote, but will influence his ability to gain support from within a future Dem. administration - probably negatively, since Hillary is presumptively the final candidate (and Gore is very unlikely to endorse her pre-primary) and nothing he says now will end the cool war between the Gore faction and Clinton faction of the Dem. party.

[Misanthrope]

I like Zach's reasoning. I'll take a guess, in two parts:
1) His endorsement will not be coming soon, just before the first primary.
2) It won't go to a second tier candidate. He will throw his weight only where he thinks he can truly effect the outcome. Edwards is possible, but I suspect he will wan in the polls before then, and Hillary is a non-starter for a vareity of reasons not limited to past animosity, Iraq war support, and generally centrist positions. So: Al will endorse Obama.

[Katie McGee]

I agree with your last poster. Gore will endorse Obama. Obama embodies Gore's notions as expressed in his latest book--he knows politics is broke in Washington and has the will and the potential political talent to change it.

I think rather than putting Gore on the ticket, which would be of no interest to Gore(unless he were first), he would do well to play a more substantive role in an Obama administration: energy secretary? The guy who heads the Presidential Commission on Global Warming? Something to that effect. If Gore does endorse Obama, he would do well to go out and actively campaign on his behalf. That is the only way to beat the Hillary machine, and clearly, it looks like Obama may need that.