More Iran

Let me be clear. I think a straight-off invasion of Iran sometime in the next 16 months isn't all that likely. What I think is much more likely is some sort of violent escalation, perhaps towards an eventual invasion of Iran, in the next 16 months.

[I]t's worth remembering that when the Bush administration wanted to invade Iraq, they spent the better part of two years pursuing a massive PR strategy to sell the deployment. Going to war is actually a relatively tough thing to do, even in a system that gives fairly significant levels of foreign policy autonomy to the executive.

It's also worth remembering that, as it turned out, the deployment to Iraq actually happened and, as a result, the military is right there right now. And while we're remembering things, remember too that a relatively narrowly focused attack on what we think of (or describe) as some functioning element of the Iranian insurgency would be easy. It would be easy to pull off logistically. It would be easy to excuse rhetorically. It would be easy to do without giving anybody in this country any notice. It would be easy to do before the election. It would be easy in a box, it would be easy with a fox. I want us not to bomb Iran. I want no shit to hit the fan. I do not like that sort of plan. I do not like it, Sam I am. (Applause. Thank you.)

Comments

[tracy]

Hey, I think you've hit upon an argument format that our President just might be able to grasp.

[JimPortlandOR]

Yes, much too easy, Brian. They don't need pre-release movie trailers on this one.

Any old provocation, manufactured or real, will do. In August 1964 you were probably not even a special glimmer in your mom and dad's eyes, but LBJ got a war resolution from Congress without anything more than an accusation for proof. After a supposed attack on a US destroyed on 8/2, and After fewer than nine hours of committee consideration and floor debate on 8/7, we were at war.

[Neil the Ethical Werewolf]

I like the poem at the end, and if it were still the weekend, I'd put it up on the Ezra blog.

One of the things that impressed me in the Ezra post, though, was the stuff about Cheney losing power and Rice gaining power. Do you not see that happening?